What awaits us in the 21st century? Futurological forecast by Ray Kurzweil. Modern philosophy about forecasts and prospects for the future of humanity Futuristic forecasts for the development of human civilization
Thanks to the survival instinct, humanity and our civilization have existed for thousands of years. Although over the past few decades, scientific communities have increasingly worried about possible global catastrophes - events with a high risk coefficient that can not only harm the planet, but also destroy life on it.
The era of black holes is described in Professor Fred Adams' book "The Five Ages of the Universe" as an age in which organized matter will remain only in the form of black holes. Gradually, thanks to quantum processes of radiation activity, they will get rid of the matter they absorbed. By the end of this era, only low-energy protons, electrons and neutrons will remain. In other words, we can say goodbye to our beautiful blue planet.
According to many religious movements, which put forward various hypotheses, the end of the world is approaching (doomsday, the second coming of Jesus Christ, the coming of the Antichrist). Everyone agrees on one thing: the end of the world is inevitable. Scientists refute most hypotheses, but also agree that this can happen.
When you think about the reigns of dictators such as Hitler, Stalin, Saddam, Kim Jong-un and other classic political dictatorships, it is easy to assume that such a scenario can also be considered the beginning of the end of civilization.
As a result of another doomsday scenario, man-made nanorobots will get out of control and destroy humanity.
Many scientists are concerned that extremely powerful gamma radiation from neighboring galaxies, as a result of a very strong explosion, could cause the death of our planet. This hypothesis helps explain the so-called Fermi Paradox, which indicates that besides us, there are no other technologically advanced civilizations in the Universe, since gamma rays may have destroyed everything.
This is a controversial issue, but many believe that as a result of human activity, the resulting global warming will become a factor that can be considered as the cause of climate change and the death of life on our planet.
The Sun periodically releases hot radioactive clouds of gas into space, which threaten the Earth's magnetic field, as they are extremely powerful and reach the Earth in just a few hours. According to some scientists, as a result of the damage that man brings to his planet, uncontrolled coronal ejections from the Sun will one day destroy the planet.
The Big Bang theory is another dubious cosmological hypothesis, according to which the matter of the Universe, ranging from stars, galaxies to atoms and other particles that appeared as a result of this explosion, will disappear in the same way in the future.
The Big Crunch is another scientific hypothesis for the end of our existence. As a result, the Universe will shrink and explode. The Big Bang created it, and the Big Crunch will destroy it.
"Genetic pollution" is a dubious term used to explain the uncontrolled use of genetic engineering that interferes with the natural world. It is undesirable to interfere with genes, since once you create new organisms, you can irreversibly harm existing ones. Undesirable dominant species may emerge as a result of spontaneous mutations.
Another risk to the life of humanity can be considered global epidemics, which can spread very quickly through airborne droplets and kill people just a few hours before humanity finds an effective cure.
What would the planet look like if humanity suddenly disappeared from the face of the earth like the dinosaurs? Several reasons can lead to the sudden extinction of humanity. For example, all men will become gay and human reproduction will stop.
There are two scenarios for the development of the future of the Universe, and both lead to its death. Some scientists say the universe will explode, while others say it will freeze. One way or another, both scenarios are absolutely unoptimistic.
The threat of overpopulation of the planet is being heard more and more often. Many experts argue that by 2050 this will be our biggest challenge. The fact is that humanity will be so numerous that there will not be enough of various life-sustaining resources, for example, water and oil. As a result, we get hunger, drought, disease and endless wars between countries.
Excessive consumption is already considered one of the risks in 2015. Because people consume much more than nature can regenerate. Manifestations of overconsumption include huge fish catches and excessive consumption of meat. The same applies to vegetables and fruits.
Albert Einstein was one of the first to predict the end of the world as a result of World War III. He said that he did not know what weapons humanity would use during the Third World War, but in the Fourth World War humanity would fight with stones and clubs.
The death of civilization is the most realistic scenario among those that predict the death of humanity. An example is the fate of the Mayan civilization or the Byzantine Empire. The same thing can happen to all of humanity in the future.
Nuclear holocaust and apocalypse are among the most real risks that could lead to the death of humanity. This can happen because the world has accumulated a huge amount of nuclear weapons.
The New World Order could be established by one of the secret organizations that exist today (Illuminati, Freemasons, Zionists, etc.). Today they are under the control of society, but in the future they can become more powerful and, with their dogmas and actions, lead humanity to slavery and the service of evil.
The essence of the Malthusian catastrophe according to Thomas Malth, author of “An Essay on the Law of Population” (1798), is that in the future the population will overtake the growth and opportunities of the agricultural sector of the economy and stability. After which the population will decline and decrease, and disasters will begin.
This theory has been around since antiquity and most (if not all) have seen countless films in which, one sunny day, some alien civilization will conquer the planet and try to destroy life on it. This will not happen in the near future, but perhaps it will happen someday.
Transhumanism is an international cultural and intellectual movement of the last few years, the purpose of which is to understand the great role of technology in transforming and improving the quality of the material, physical and mental spheres of human life. Although it sounds great, humanity may suffer as a result of the information and technological revolution.
Experts use the concept of “technological singularity” to describe a hypothetical scenario in which rapid technological progress will play a cruel joke on humanity, which will create artificial intelligence and die, losing control over clones and robots.
The concept of "mutually assured destruction" refers to the global use of weapons for the purpose of mass destruction of people and the planet. This is a realistic scenario if we evaluate the current political and military situation in the world.
Those who have watched the movie “Die Another Day” know that kinetic bombardment can destroy life on the planet. If you haven't seen the movie, then imagine the development of space weapons that can destroy everything on Earth in a couple of seconds. Scary? Scary. But scientists even calculated the probability to thousandths of a percent.
With the emergence of global problems in most sciences, there has been an increased interest in the future and development prospects. This future is being explored at all levels - local, country, subregional, regional and global, and, quite naturally, global forecasts are of greatest interest. This is how a new interdisciplinary direction arose - global forecasting, which deals with the analysis of current and especially future trends in human development. From the very beginning, it took the form of global modeling and found expression in the construction of mathematical models of complex multifactor processes of world development. Over time, they underwent a certain structuring, and as a result, models of socio-economic, demographic, and environmental development began to be identified. But the most important of them have always been and remain characterized by an integrated approach.
Russian and foreign authors who consider the problems of global forecasting and modeling usually distinguish models of the first, second and third generations in this process. They differ from each other not so much in the method of calculation (although this is constantly being improved), but in the general focus and general nature of assessments and forecasts, meaning the degree of their optimism or pessimism.
The first scientific organizations to predict the future of humanity were created in the USA back in the 40s. XX century In 1946, a group of prominent entrepreneurs, in collaboration with scientists at Stanford University (California), founded the Stanford Research Institute. Two years later, another “brains trust” arose - the RAND Corporation in Santa Monica (California). In 1956, System Development Corporation was created. In 1966, the Society for the Study of the Future of the World was founded in Washington. As a result, in the 60s. XX century In the USA alone, there were 15 large institutes and organizations of this kind, in which thousands of scientists were engaged in researching current and predicting future development. Similar institutions have emerged in Europe: the Institute for Future Problems in Vienna, the international foundation Humanity 2000 in the Netherlands.
From the standpoint of assessing the global forecasts of that time, the popular science book by two German authors entitled “The World in 2000,” translated into Russian, may still be of considerable interest today. Its subtitle itself indicates that this work does not represent an independent and original study of trends in the development of the world economy. The book was based on a variety of forecasts related to the development of individual sectors of the economy (ferrous metallurgy, chemistry, transport, information technology), the environment (environment, ocean resources), as well as labor resources, medicine, and the future of cities. It is characteristic that the end date of the forecasts considered by S. Beinhauer and E. Schmacke was 2000, which for that time was a rather distant prospect. The book by the two authors was written not just in optimistic, but downright enthusiastic tones, which was generally characteristic of Western futurology of that period.
But then, at the turn of the 60s and 70s. XX century, prognostic studies of a completely different, much more pessimistic plan appear. This is evidenced by their titles: “The Abyss Ahead” (A. Peccei), “Futuroshock” (A. Toffler), “Planet Under Threat” (R. Faulk), etc. A book by the famous American scientist A. Toffler, published in 1970 g., became a real bestseller, and the term “futuroshock” itself, i.e. the shock of a person’s meeting with the future, became a household word. To this list of works of a prognostic nature that have caused a great resonance, one should add the book by G. Kahn and E. Wiener “The Year 2000”. They took the per capita GDP indicator (at the 1965 level) as the basis for their calculations. Their conclusion was that to reach the then level of the United States, Western European countries would have needed 10–20 years, the USSR almost 30, China more than 100, India almost 120, and Indonesia almost 600 years.
But the turning point in global modeling was the early 1970s, when the works of the Club of Rome, an international organization for forecasting and modeling the development of the global system, began to appear. The Club of Rome was founded in 1968 by representatives of ten countries who gathered in Rome on the initiative of a prominent public figure, manager of the FIAT concern and subsequently president of this club, Aurelio Peccei. It is with the Club of Rome that the emergence and development of such a new direction of research as global studies, which studies the global world and its problems, is primarily associated. The main goal of its activities is to attract the attention of the world community to the global problems of mankind and to find ways to solve them. Already in the early 1970s. The Club of Rome united up to one hundred famous scientists, public figures and representatives of the business community of Western countries, who participated in its work as private individuals, and began to publish their research in the form of reports to this club. Perhaps the most famous were the first of these reports, which were closely related to the global problems of humanity. By the way, this term itself was introduced into scientific circulation precisely in the works of the authors of the Club of Rome.
The fundamental work, in the spirit of not just futurology as such, but specifically global modeling, should be considered the book by Professor of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in Boston J. Forrester “World Dynamics” (1971). In his book, J. Forrester, using mathematical models and computer technology, tried to simulate the dynamics of world development. At the same time, the author viewed the world as a single whole, as a system of interacting processes: demographic, industrial, depletion of natural resources, environmental pollution, food production. And his calculations and models led to the conclusion that a serious crisis in the relationship between man and the environment was inevitable, which could have been expected already at the beginning of the 21st century. J. Forrester's book (it was also translated into Russian) served as a kind of foundation for subsequent reports to the Club of Rome.
The first of the reports was prepared in 1972 in the USA by a multinational group of scientists led by J. Forrester's student D. Meadows. It was called “The Limits of Growth”. Its main content was a cybernetic model of human development for the next 130 years, in the development of which the authors proceeded from an analysis of five main trends on a global scale: accelerated industrialization, rapid population growth, widespread hunger and malnutrition, depletion of non-renewable natural resources and habitat deterioration. All of them were “played” using a computer in different versions. At the same time, as a kind of standard, D. Meadows and his collaborators proceeded from the following “control figures”:
1) the total potential area of arable land on the planet is 3.2 billion hectares;
2) maximum yield may be three times higher than the 1970 level;
3) the total available reserves of non-renewable natural resources are 200 times greater than the level of consumption in 1970;
4) the level of absorption of pollutants by the biosphere and its main subsystems can be 25 times higher than in natural ecosystems at the 1970 level.
Rice. 1. Basic model of global development (according to D. Meadows)
The content of D. Meadows' report was clearly alarmist in nature. It stated that given the existing conditions at the turn of the 60s and 70s. XX century the rate of population growth (doubling in 33 years), the growth of industrial production (doubling in 10–15 years), trends in environmental pollution, food production, withdrawal of natural resources, “the growth limit on this planet will be reached within the next hundred years” (Fig. 1). At the same time, already at the beginning of the third millennium, humanity may largely lose control over global development. To avoid the impending global catastrophe, the authors proposed to “slow down” both the demographic and economic development of the world, moving to “zero growth? both population and production. According to their calculations, the destruction of the world system could still have been prevented if it had been possible to stop population growth in 1975 and industrial growth in 1985. “The Limits to Growth” received enormous resonance throughout the world. At the same time, society split into supporters and opponents of “zero growth.” And although there were more opponents, the main goal of the report was undoubtedly achieved: after it, everyone’s attention was drawn to the problems of the future of humanity.
In general, “The Limits to Growth” made such an impression on world public opinion that the Club of Rome decided to re-examine the same problems. As a result, a second report to the Club of Rome appeared, prepared in 1974 by M. Mesarovic, professor of applied mathematics at Cleveland University (USA), and E. Pestel, director of the Institute of Mechanics in Hannover (Germany). It was called "Mankind at the Turning Point." The two authors' model of the world system was divided into "strata", or different levels and spheres of the hierarchical system. At the same time, the following were considered: the “stratum” of the human environment (climatic conditions, water, land, environmental processes); technological “stratum” (biological, chemical, physical conditions); demographic and economic “strata”; group "strata" which included social conditions; finally, the individual “stratum,” which meant the mental and biological world of man. Unlike the first model, the forecast was considered only for 50 years (1975–2025).
The model of M. Mesarovic and E. Pestel had another important difference from the models of J. Forrester and D. Meadows, especially important for geographers. The fact is that in the first two models the world was viewed as a single whole, without any internal regionalization. In the work “Humanity at a Turning Point,” regional models were presented for the first time, and in three versions.
Feeling the unpopularity and practical impossibility of implementing the idea of “zero growth,” M. Mesarovic and E. Pestel, along with it, put forward the concept of balanced (“organic?) growth of population and economy. They also emphasized that disaster threatens primarily developing countries, where the economy, especially given the demographic explosion, cannot proceed from “zero growth.” But this growth must be compensated, as it were, by the slower economic development of the countries of the North.
The third report to the Club of Rome was prepared in 1976 by a group of scientists led by the famous Dutch mathematician and economist, Nobel Prize winner in economics, Jan Tinbergen. It was called “Revisiting the International Order.” As this name itself shows, J. Tinbergen's report - in accordance with the detailed program for establishing such an order adopted by the UN General Assembly in 1974 - analyzed changes in international economic relations and the prospects for their progressive development. In other words, it was about “establishing order” in the world capitalist system of trade, credit and financial relations, food distribution, cooperation in the field of science and technology, etc. And the practical recommendations of the report boiled down mainly to the gradual “pulling up” of the developing countries of Asia, Africa and Latin America to the level of more advanced countries. J. Tinbergen also proceeded from the concept of “organic growth” for the whole world. This report (it was also translated into Russian) was criticized. In particular, because, having divided the whole world into the “world of rich” and “world of poor” nations, the authors did not take into account the fact that the nations themselves are heterogeneous in their social composition.
In principle, the alarmist nature of the first reports to the Club of Rome can be understood. After all, the first half of the 70s. XX century was a time of energy and raw materials crises, the peak of the population explosion, a sharp exacerbation of food and environmental problems, an urban crisis, rising unemployment, crime and other social disasters. At that time, and in many other publications, as well as in “green” programs, the need to develop nuclear (and conventional thermal) energy was denied, demands were made for a complete ban on deforestation, an end to the chemicalization of agriculture, the replacement of a car with a bicycle, etc.
In the second half of the 70s. XX century Several more reports to the Club of Rome appeared. Although they did not cause as much resonance as the first three, it is important to note that the over-anxious alarmist tendencies in them noticeably weakened and the previous negative reaction to the progress of science and technology was no longer encountered.
This also applies to other futurological studies published in the second half of the 1970s. Examples of this kind include the book “The Next 200 Years” (1976) by the founder and director of the Hudson Institute in the USA, Herman Kahn, or the report of a group of UN experts prepared under the leadership of the famous American economist, Nobel Prize winner in economics Vasily Leontiev, entitled “The Future of the World Economics" (1977). V. Leontiev’s model took into account the interaction of 25 industries in 15 regions of the world, as well as 8 types of environmental pollution and 5 types of treatment activities. Experts determined the levels of development of individual countries based on the size of per capita GDP. This book has also been translated into Russian. The book by the English economist E. Schumacher, “Small is Beautiful,” was also distinguished by its relative realism. Economy for the sake of people."
In the first half of the 1980s. The harvest in the futurological field was no less. The entire tone of global forecasts has changed quite a lot in these years. The environmental shock faded into the background, while the “new technocratic wave”, associated with the transition of the economies of developed Western countries to a post-industrial society, came to the fore. For example, G. Friedrichs and A. Schaff in their report proceeded from the fact that thanks to miniaturization, automation, computerization and robotization, microelectronics can fundamentally transform our world and allow us to solve seemingly insurmountable problems, including those of a global nature. In itself, the healthy optimism of most of these works should be welcomed. However, some of them painted a perhaps too idyllic picture of the future.
An example is the sketch of the city of the future from J. Martin’s book “The Telematics Society”. The city of the future, according to the author, is parks, lakes, flower beds, crystal clear air. Most of the cars are located in huge parking lots outside the city. Cable networks are installed under the streets, providing all possible types of communications. There is no need for frequent trips around the city as before. Banking transactions are carried out directly from home, as well as purchasing goods. Working from home using terminals and videophones that transmit images, documents and speech is strongly encouraged. Meetings and all kinds of work conferences are carried out over telecommunication networks, covering participants remote from each other. Crime is a thing of the past and there are no street robberies because people carry little cash and pay with bank cards that can only be used by their owners. City residents have special radio devices that automatically call the police and ambulance. The houses are equipped with alarm systems in case of fire. By connecting a pocket computer terminal anywhere to communication networks, you can, in a matter of minutes, request information about, say, a good restaurant, airplane schedules, theater performances, contact medical institutions, a computer on the stock exchange, send a message yourself, and even request from a special entertainment bank given acuity on the desired topic...
However, in the second half of the 80s - the first half of the 90s. XX century The situation on the global modeling “market” has changed somewhat again.
The “future shock” began to be felt again in forecasts and models. This is evidenced by the materials of the International Commission on Environment and Development, created in 1983 at the initiative of the UN, entitled “Our Common Future”, as well as “Agenda 21”, adopted in 1992 at the UN Conference on the Environment and development in Rio de Janeiro.
In this sense, the new book by D. Meadows and his co-authors, “Beyond Growth” (1992), published 20 years after the first, is of greatest interest. Recognizing that great changes have occurred in the world during this time, the authors generally remain in their previous positions and confirm the main conclusions that they came to back in 1972. Firstly, that the pace of humankind’s use of many important types of resources and the rate of production of many types of pollution already exceeds acceptable limits and, therefore, without a significant reduction in the flow of material and energy resources, in the coming decades there will be an uncontrolled reduction in per capita indicators of food production, energy consumption and industrial production. Secondly, that this reduction is not inevitable, but in order to prevent it, a transition to policies and practices is necessary that would help reduce population growth and the level of material consumption while simultaneously rapidly increasing the efficiency of the use of material and energy resources. Thirdly, that technologically and economically the creation of a sustainable society is still possible.
In the 1990s. The club of global “fashion designers” itself has expanded significantly. Currently, the World Resources Institute in Washington, the Stockholm Environment Institute, the International Institute of Environmental Technology and Management, the World Bank, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) and many other organizations are involved in the compilation of global futurological models. But among them, two institutions deserve special attention. These are the World Watch Institute in Washington, headed by the famous scientist Lester Brown and regularly publishing its reviews and forecasts (three of them have been translated into Russian), as well as the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) in Vienna, which is developing in three main areas:
1) environmental change on a global scale;
2) global economic transformations;
3) methodological foundations for the analysis of global problems.
Along with this, he also deals with global population forecasts.
Subsequently, interesting forecasts by American geographers, for example S. Cohen, also appeared regarding the future of the political map of the world. According to these forecasts, the process of disintegration of states that is so characteristic of our days will continue, as a result of which in 20–30 years the number of independent countries could reach approximately 300 (compared to 57 in 1900, 71 in 1938, 92 in 1959 and 193 in 2000). For example, S. Cohen believes that in Europe Flanders, Wallonia, Brittany, Wales, Scotland, Catalonia, and the Basque Country will become independent states; in Asia - about. Mindanao, Punjab, Tibet, in Africa - Katanga, in North America - French Canada. The possible disintegration of Australia, Afghanistan, South Africa, Sudan, Brazil, Mexico, as well as (at least partly) Russia and China are predicted. The basis for such forecasts is the tendency towards political self-determination, which is so clearly evident today.
Another American specialist, Harvard University professor P. Cooper, published his geopolitical forecast, according to which already in the first decades of the 21st century. in the world there will appear both new “South Koreas”, rapidly developing along a democratic path, and new “Iraqs”, following the course of totalitarianism. The American press recently published a forecast based on the fact that if current separatist trends continue, by 2100 the total number of countries in the world could reach 2000! Among the most obvious candidates are Scotland, Quebec, Palestine, Kosovo, Tibet, Kashmir, Kurdistan, Chechnya, South Ossetia, Timor, Biafra (Nigeria).
Speaking about global geopolitical forecasts, it can be noted that after the end of the Cold War and the confrontation between socialism and capitalism, the focus was on the relationship between the “rich North” and the “poor South”, which began to increasingly oppose globalization taking place under the auspices of the only world superpower - the USA. From now on, the main attention of futurologists began to be attracted to the problem of the dialogue of civilizations and determining the likelihood of disruption of such a dialogue and a clash of civilizations in a more or less distant future. First of all, it was about the gradually worsening relations between European-American and Islamic civilizations, whose views on human values and prospects for world development turned out to be almost opposite. As for the events of the fall of 2001 (terrorist attacks by Islamists in the United States and retaliatory strikes in Afghanistan), many analysts view them as a fundamental shift in the entire modern global geopolitical order.
Rice. 2. Geostrategic module (according to A. I. Nekless)
The most complete understanding of classical Western prognostics of the second half of the 20th century. the book “Ahead of the 21st Century” can give.
Attempts to create global forecasts have been and are being made by some domestic scientists - D. M. Gvishiani, N. N. Moiseev, I. V. Bestuzhev-Lada, A. I. Neklessa, etc. Most of them can perhaps be classified as geopolitical, geostrategic. For example, Academician N.N. Moiseev developed the idea of the emergence in the 1990s. American World (PAX AMERICANA) and its future. In the model proposed by A. I. Neklessa, the Atlantic and Pacific worlds, the Indian Ocean arc and the “land ocean” of Eurasia are considered as the main components of the future world order. The remaining global forecasts are socio-economic, demographic and environmental in nature.
The great British physicist Stephen Hawking warns humanity of imminent and almost inevitable death. In the new documentary Stephen Hawking: New Earth Expedition, he lists all the major threats that could destroy humanity: overpopulation, asteroids, epidemics, and so on. In a separate line, the scientist highlights the danger of nuclear war, artificial intelligence and genetically modified viruses. He believes that in a hundred years the number of threats to our civilization will increase so much that the death of humanity will no longer seem fantastic to anyone.
Somewhat earlier, Hawking stated that humanity has about a thousand years to avoid destruction by finding a habitable world and colonizing it. Now these periods have decreased tenfold, so it does not seem possible to find and colonize another world (think:
The good news came from Ray Kurzweil, an American inventor and futurist, and part-time technical director of Google. He put together all the main forecasts he had given over the past two decades and specified the time frame for their implementation down to a year. There are about 30 of these forecasts, and you can get acquainted with them, for example,.
Mr. Kurzweil prophesies a paradise for humanity, and an almost immediate one. True, in this barrel of heaven lies an almost invisible spoon of hell. We don’t really understand what the futurist meant by “the spread of technological singularity throughout the entire Universe” (what about the speed of light, which, according to Einstein?), but this technological singularity itself, translated into a generally understandable language, means a state of technological progress, in which it will become so fast and complex that it will be beyond our understanding. And this is more bad than good.
Commenting on the forecasts for TD, Vladimir Lipunov, a professor at the Faculty of Physics at Moscow State University, responded favorably to Kurzweil’s predictions, but noted that even if they all come true within the specified time frame, this will not save our civilization. Her death, according to Lipunov, will inevitably dawn in exactly a hundred, or at most a few hundred, years. The astrophysicist comes to this conclusion through simple calculations based on the fact that almost half a century of searching for traces that could have been left by alien civilizations has not yielded any results.
“Scientists have been thinking about this for a long time,” says Vladimir Lipunov. ― Back in 1950, Enrico Fermi asked what was later called the Great Silence of the Universe: “If there are many extraterrestrial civilizations in our galaxy, then why do we still not see traces of them, such as spaceships or probes?” In the late 80s, I calculated the average lifespan of any technological civilization during the period when its technology begins to develop exponentially. If our planet is not unique, it should be assumed that there must be many intelligent, and most importantly, technologically advanced civilizations. They can come into contact with each other if the time of their existence and the distance between them allow such contact. Over billions of years, you can, if not master, then at least study the entire galaxy, leaving your traces everywhere, and, of course, coming into contact with other civilizations. And if there is no contact, then it means that the life of such a civilization is short and, according to my calculations, averages about a hundred or several hundred years. Subsequently, colleagues from Russia and the USA independently came to the same results, and this coincides very well with the predictions of Stephen Hawking.
The person writing these lines, due to his nature, treats both forecasts with equal skepticism. In his view, most of Kurzweil's promises are quite feasible, but the timing of their implementation is highly questionable - especially considering the resistance that some of these innovations will face.
You can also find objections to the imminent death of humanity - if only because you really don’t want to meet it, and it’s more pleasant to believe the opposite according to the principle “maybe it will blow by.” However, some restrictions will still have to be imposed on this “maybe”.
Take, for example, artificial intelligence: one of the leading experts on it, British professor Kevin Warwick, has no doubt that soon the artificial brain will surpass the human one. But he immediately makes a reservation: the main thing, in his opinion, is not to lose control of the new mind, otherwise your faithful assistant will turn into the brainchild of Frankenstein, and his literary analogue will seem like Cheburashka. However, the professor regrets, it will be difficult to do this while there are wars in the world and the warring parties want to use advanced weapons. In such an environment, Warwick says, a rapid race of intellects is inevitable, and there will be no time for control. If we consider Kurzweil’s predictions about cyborg people, chips embedded in the brain, nanorobots, and so on, then a similar danger lurks in terrorists - they may well use these “miracles” for their own purposes.
Therefore, before achieving the goals outlined by the futurologist, humanity will have to completely get rid of both wars and terrorism. You can try to do this on Earth, or you can choose an easier path and start looking for a planet suitable for life, where there are no wars or terrorists. True, from a certain point of view, this is not a guarantee: as one book says, “when [people] say: “peace and security,” then destruction will suddenly befall them.”
In Kyiv, the famous popularizer of science, Professor Michio Kaku from the USA, gave a lecture on the topic “Physics of the Future”, in which he described his own vision of how the world will develop over the next hundred years. Michio became famous for his work on the Discovery.Science TV channel, and is the author of many books on the topic of futurology.
The value of his predictions lies in the fact that Mr. Kaku is a physicist. That is, it not only describes the technologies of the future, but also talks about ways to achieve them. Each forecast is based on existing scientific advances, which it extrapolates years into the future.
Interestingly, Michio Kaku's predictions made several years ago have already come true. Augmented reality glasses, driverless cars, smart homes and objects, flexible paper, clothes connected to the Internet - all this is either already available or will become so in the coming years. Although the lecture in the crowded hall of the Kiev-Mohyla Academy lasted more than two hours, no one in the audience even yawned or took a smoke break.
The scientist with sparkling eyes talked about things that seem incredible today. Surely, at the beginning of the twentieth century, stories about supersonic aircraft, mobile communications, the Internet and other things familiar to us would have sounded no less amazing. Vesti chose the futurologist's most impressive forecasts.
FORECAST FOR 2030 - 2070
Quantum revolution
The D-Wave quantum computer is 3600 times more powerful than a regular PC. Photo D-Wave
In the coming years, we will face a computer revolution. Moore's law - doubling computer power every two years - will no longer be relevant in a few years. The fact is that today transistors have already been brought to a size of 14 nanometers. The maximum possible theoretical limit is 10 nanometers (after which electrons will begin to leak through a layer several atoms thick) - such chips will appear around 2020. And then either a catastrophe will happen for the entire industry (and the world economy), or technology will move forward - and the era of quantum computers will begin (its performance is thousands of times higher than that of conventional PCs), allowing one to speed up calculations several times over. The second scenario is more likely, because the first models of such computers are already on sale.
Avalanche of information
Substrate with ultra-small chips of 22 nanometers. Photo Intel
An even more important event is the information explosion, the beginning of which we are already feeling. Today we are just entering the era of Big Data (accumulation and processing of an impressive amount of information). If today we are talking about exabytes of information (a million times more than a terabyte), then by 2016 we will already be operating with zettabytes of data (a thousand times more than an exabyte). In recent years, humanity has accumulated more knowledge than in its entire history. And the speed of knowledge exchange has increased thousands of times and continues to grow. It is this factor that gives reason to say that fundamental discoveries in the field of science and technology will occur in the coming decades. In terms of the degree of influence, this can be compared with the Age of Great Geographical Discoveries.
Mixing realities
Such hints are already visible in augmented reality glasses. Photo EON
Processors will become so cheap and microscopic that they will be built into all household items (they will become “smart”). The world itself will be covered with a global information web, with which we will interact using gadgets. It will be a strange world - a mixture of real and virtual reality. Special contact lenses will allow you to see not only the real world in front of you, but also virtual images superimposed on it. Phone, watch, MP3 player, navigator will become just icons displayed on the lens. All this will dramatically change a person’s ideas about the workplace, trade, tourism, and entertainment. With the help of virtual images, it will be possible to change the picture of the world in the literal sense of the word - the colors of objects, the interior and even the appearance of the street.
FORECAST FOR 2070-2100
Medicine of the future: steps towards immortality
The British created a human biomodel in May. Photo newscom.md
Already today, high technologies are being used in medicine, for example, capsule-cameras have been invented that must be swallowed, and they will record everything that happens in the body. In the future, programmed chemical “bombs” will appear that will precisely hit tumors without poisoning nearby healthy tissue. A new approach to treatment is to fight diseases before they appear. Every bathroom will have more sensors than a modern hospital, and they will be able to easily detect cancer cells years before a tumor appears (half of all cancers are associated with a mutation in the p53 gene, which can be detected using diagnostic equipment). Further more. In the future, gene therapy could cure all or almost all of the 5,000 known genetic diseases. By mid-century, scientists will move from “simple” gene repair to gene improvement. People will be designed in the image and likeness of famous athletes and action heroes, or new creatures will be created with a set of ideal qualities - for example, fearless strongmen capable of reaching breakneck speeds. Scientists will also learn to slow down the aging process using various methods: stem cell therapy, growing “spare parts” for the human body, and gene therapy to “repair” aging genes. A person can live up to 150 years and even longer. By 2100, perhaps scientists will learn to reverse the aging process by activating cell repair mechanisms, and then human life expectancy will increase several times. The next step is immortality. Overpopulation will not occur - population growth will stop at around 9 billion people. Now families plan for no more than three children (usually two), and the richer the country, the later and fewer women give birth.
Robot World
Androids are currently only capable of primitive work. Photo CEBIT-2012
By mid-century, our world will be full of robots without us even noticing them: they will be disguised as snakes, insects and spiders, performing various tasks. These will be modular robots capable of changing shape depending on the task, and they will be controlled by supercomputers via wireless communication. But will there appear android robots like the Terminator? This question is related to the issue of developing artificial intelligence. It has not yet been possible to teach computers to perform two key tasks that the human brain performs automatically, without any difficulty: pattern recognition and common sense. A more likely scenario is that people will replace body parts with mechanical ones to increase physical capabilities.
Controlling the power of thought
The next step is telekinesis. The foundations of this technology have already been laid, but its improvement may take many more decades. The task consists of two parts. Firstly, the brain must learn to control objects in the external world, and secondly, the computer must learn to guess (and fulfill) the owner’s wishes. There are no problems with the first part - with the help of tomographs, doctors have learned to track brain activity and understand the direction of a person’s thoughts. There is an understanding of how the second part of the task will be implemented. These are sensors built into objects with the help of which the computer will perceive information. Telekinesis (moving objects with the power of thought) is still science fiction, but over time it will become commonplace. By 2100, every person will be able to enter a room and give a mental command to a computer: move furniture, tidy up a table, repair something.
IS IT WONDERFUL: SIX FEARS
The future described by the futurologist looks beautiful. But won’t new problems appear that threaten humanity with the development of technology? The authoritative scientific portal Edge asked this question to people who know a little more about the future than others: scientists, futurologists and experts in the main branches of human activity. We have selected the most interesting opinions.
1. The Chinese will become superhumans Jeffrey Miller, an evolutionary psychologist from NYU Stern Business School and the University of New Mexico, points out that for more than thirty years China has been engaged in eugenics (the study of human selection. - Author). And at the same time it continues to grow as a superpower. “I think this poses a threat to Western civilization,” the expert writes. Today in the city of Shenzhen there is a research center where more than 4,000 scientists are working on creating the man of the future. “It’s too early to be wary of this. But it is worth considering taking part in this process. And how we can help each other,” says Miller.
2. The Internet will become a control tool Bruce Schneier, a computer security specialist, believes that there is a risk of abuse of information technology by corporations and world governments: “They may try to remake the Network for themselves, correcting the “shortcomings” that prevent widespread surveillance, censorship and squeezing money at every turn. The situation is aggravated by the fact that the positive and negative aspects of the Internet are closely intertwined. The fight against hackers, child pornography and other vices is a good reason to tighten the screws.” According to the expert, this is an issue that needs to be resolved today.
3. Big Data will create information chaos Victoria Stodden, professor of statistics, draws attention to the fact that humanity has a risk of getting confused in information: “It is generally accepted that numbers do not lie and it is useless to argue with them. The problem is that this is not true. Numbers may lie. Errors can be introduced accidentally or intentionally at any stage, but no one looks for them because critical thinking about data has not yet become common practice outside the scientific community. The pursuit of fashion does not lead to good things. And data fashion is no exception. The understanding that the quantity of data is not as important as its quality is only now beginning to emerge. I hope it's not too late."
4. The Internet is about to collapse George Dyson, a technology historian, believes that one day we will face a catastrophic collapse of the Internet. However, we do not have a fallback option to bring up a primitive, low-bandwidth emergency network in the event that the main network we have come to rely on becomes unavailable. As a result, humanity, which is too dependent on technology, will become virtually paralyzed. “We need an action plan for this case and a primitive communication network with low bandwidth and long latency, which could be built on the basis of mobile phones and laptops,” the expert believes.
5. Synthetic life threatens natural life Biologist Sayrian Sumner is concerned about experiments to create new life forms. “Do we understand molecular rules sufficiently to risk releasing our synthetic creations into natural ecosystems? Even if everything works perfectly in the laboratory, and the developers of the new organism have provided protective mechanisms that do not allow it to evolve, no one knows what will happen when the synthetic creature gets into the real ecosystem,” the expert notes. This is why genetically modified organisms require special control.
6. There will be no place for people in a world of machines David Dalrymple, a computer science expert, fears robots will take away people's jobs. “Change will begin long before machines can handle any imaginable human job. Remember that the Chinese corporation Foxconn, which assembles equipment from Apple, HP, Nintendo, Google, Amazon, Sony and many other companies, is seriously considering replacing manual labor with industrial robots. Foxconn employs more than a million people. If at least half of them remain unemployed, that’s already five hundred thousand people who will become victims of that very painful transition to a new paradigm,” he says.
Most science fiction writers and futurologists see the future of humanity in rather gloomy colors, and not without reason. Our attitude towards the environment leaves much to be desired, we use technology too thoughtlessly and are becoming increasingly adept at self-destruction. However, there are also optimists for whom the distant future seems surprising and wonderful.
1. Status quo
A realistic assessment of the current state of affairs was formulated by the co-founder of the American software and hardware manufacturer Sun Microsystems, Bill Joy. In a 2004 article, “Why the Future Doesn't Need Us,” he wrote about the catastrophic consequences that could result from the development of 21st century technologies such as robotics, genetic engineering and nanotechnology. Joy believes that the smartest thing humanity can do today is to use what it already has. This is the only way it can prolong its existence on the planet.
2. Green planet
The very first idea in this series was introduced by Bruce Sterling's Green Design movement. This movement advocates the use of innovative technologies to solve environmental problems. Sterling predicts that the future of the planet will be far more ecologically diverse than at any other point in history.
In such a future, a person himself will change a lot - in order to live in complete harmony with the world around him. It will receive all our energy from the sources of the Earth and the Sun itself. Having thoroughly studied the earth's ecosystems, humanity will change them too - for example, putting an end to all predation and animal suffering. And he will control the weather at his own discretion.
And, in the end, we will learn to prevent all sorts of natural disasters: asteroid falls, earthquakes, hurricanes, volcanic eruptions...
3. Living surrounded by “machines of grace and love”
If future inventors of artificial intelligence set the right goals, Singularity believes, then the next generations will live among so-called “friendly robots” programmed to be unable to harm humans. Moreover, machines will ensure that nothing bad happens to us and protect us from all possible dangers. A whole poem by Richard Brautigan called “Machines of Grace and Love Are Watching Everything” and a British film of the same name are dedicated to a paradise where a happy future is provided for us by artificial intelligence.
4. Where no one has been before...
It’s high time to break away from our little ball and start colonizing other solar systems - some futurologists are sure. Not only our salvation depends on this (the idea that you cannot keep all your eggs in one basket), it is inherent in our very nature - to develop, move on and conquer ever new horizons.
Even now, our still timid attempts at space exploration are bringing us a lot of benefits - technologies using satellites and some breakthroughs in science.
5. Interior space
Another alternative idea is that an ideal and cloudless existence can be achieved by overloading your consciousness into giant supercomputers. Computers of enormous computing power - like the megastructure called the "matryoshka brain" proposed by Robert Bradbury - will use the entire energy potential of the planet to power the computer system.
Or civilization will find a way to build a so-called “Dyson Sphere,” which is a relatively thin spherical shell with a star in the center. Thus, two global problems will be solved at once - living space and energy, which can be obtained in abundance from the central star.
